2016 Election Predictions: Democracy Still Intact (Sort Of)
I meant to write this several weeks ago with much more depth (especially to examine who won each Senate debate; Loretta Sanchez unintentionally did her best Sarah Palin impression in her debate with Kamala Harris), but the night before the election is pretty much the last time to make any sort of predictions. So here we go:
Hillary Clinton will be the first female president in US history, while Donald Trump will create a new media empire that effectively destroys Fox News. These are both positive developments in what has been a truly odd election. The map above shows Hillary winning 328 to 210. Interestingly, this map shows Hillary winning Utah, which is no mistake. Evan McMullin’s compassionate conservativism campaign will likely pull significant support, but that will primarily come out of Trump’s margin. I expect the results in Utah to be a plurality for Hillary of 34.5%, to McMullin with 34.3%, Trump with 29%, and Johnson with 2.2%.
Although I was pushing for Trump to win Florida (a dystopian candidate for a dystopian state), it now seems Cubanos are voting in droves against the standard bearer of their party.
The Senate elections will lead to a 50-50 seat tie in the upper chamber. Duckworth and Feingold defeating GOP incumbents is foregone, but after that the GOP candidates are well-equipped to survive in this anti-Trump environment. Jason Kander will defeat the archetypal conservative deal maker in Roy Blunt, while Maggie Hassan will narrowly beat Kelly Ayotte. Joe Heck will carry Nevada even as the state votes for Clinton, primarily due to his seeming moderation and calm temperament.