2014 Senate Election Predictions

This election cycle is looking increasingly favorable for the GOP, but several interesting shake-ups are in the works. Here are the site’s predictions for the 33 Senate desks up for the taking:

(Disclaimer, this blog entry has been updated several times to add more text and debate links, but prediction winners and vote shares have not been altered. Whether they end up being accurate is less important that the fun of taking an educated guess several days before an election, and seeing how reality differs)

(Further disclaimer: I did change my prediction for the Louisiana Senate race on 11/2/14 to reflect a PPP poll that showed Maness with a 15% share. I have upped his share in my prediction to 10%, with a 3 pt reduction in Cassidy, and a 2 pt reduction in Landrieu’s share. I stand by my above disclaimer for all other race predictions)

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) v. write-ins.

Not much to say here. Sessions will win with about 81 to 87% of the vote. There must be some statewide office that Dems are looking to pick up but did not want to mobilize federally minded Rs to the poll. I could look into it, but who cares. Too bad, keeping one of the biggest tools in Congress honest is an admirable cause.

Winner: Sessions

Results: 79R-16former D-2-1-1-1

Effect: R Hold.

Alaska: Mark Begich (D) v. Dan Sullivan (R) v. assorted third partiers.

Debate

If any Dem can win in Alaska, it is Begich. He is an independent-minded, frontier type politician, just like his daddy. He supports the worst energy industry tendencies to bogart federal dollars to profitable oil companies via tax expenditures (i.e. subsidies). However, this is an anti-incumbent year, with an out-party tilt, though not as dramatic as 2010. Dan Sullivan is a run of the mill Alaska Republican, with not nearly as much baggage as Joe Miller. To me, this is the toughest race to call this cycle. Begich is a much stronger candidate than Pryor, Braley, and maybe even Landrieu, but the votes just might not be there. That said, Alaskans would be wise to set partisanship aside and develop their seniority, which — considering his fierce substantive representation of the region — should satisfy the common economic interests of the region. Environmentalists may never have a representative of their own, but Begich is a smart guy. If Sullivan was a stronger candidate, none of the above would matter.

Winner: Begich

Results: 48D-47R-4L-1

Effect: D Hold.

Arkansas: Mark Pryor (D) v. Tom Cotton (R)

Debates here and here

Mark Pryor is definitely one of the dumbest members of the Senate. His father was an accomplished legislator, bringing in a new, more progressive type of southern politician in an era of Wilbur Mills types. But he is not his father. Pryor is little more than nondescript conservative Democrat. Cotton, on the other hand, is a Ivy educated vet, but funny enough, is not actually very bright either. Certainly Cotton is the more cerebral of the two candidates, but either Cotton is as big of an ideologue as he wants conservative Arkansans to believe, or he is a slightly smarter master manipulator of public sentiment, just to advance his career and quietly work to ingratiate himself within the GOP leadership. He could potentially be a bridge between the Tea Party and mainstream sides of the Senate caucus, as double speak is certainly a trait of his, but he has to get their first. And unfortunately for Pryor, this might all be quite consequential. Although Cotton is not the superstar many had hyped him up to be, he has enough partisan id in his favor to win this election, even if he has done little to deserve a raise.

Winner: Cotton

Results: 52R-46D-1L-1G

Effect: R pickup

Colorado: Mark Udall (D) v. Corey Gardner (R)

Debates here, here and here

Mark Udall has never been a great candidate. Unlike his more progressive cousin Tom to the south in Nuevo Mexico, Mark has never carved out an area of specialization in the Senate–either ideologically or on policy. By overemphasizing women’s issues, he did alienate much of the state that just wants balanced discussion, or anti-feminist who find it taxing to have to listen women’s needs. I happen to think his ads are spot on in showcasing Gardner’s anti-choice record (including the personhood bill he refuses to call a bill). But the winds are blowing against the Democrats in general, and Corey Gardner has made sure to moderate and obfuscate as much as possible to play off of people’s uncertainties and angst. Had

Winner: Pure tossup, but Udall

Results: 48.1D-47.9R-2L-2G

Effect: D Hold

Delaware: Chris Coons (D) v. Kevin Wade (R) v. Andrew Goff (G)

Debate

Not much of a race here. Coons is not a charismatic politician, but a solid hybrid populist-technocrat. Wade does not come across too poorly, but his critique of Coons is not sufficient to propel him to victory in blue state.

Winner: Coons

Results: 57D-41R-2G

Effect: D Hold

Georgia: David Perdue (R) v. Michele Nunn (D) v. Amanda Swafford (L)

Debates here, here, here and here

Perdue has very little to offer voters in terms of an affirmative agenda. More than any other candidate, he is simply running against Obama, who is the source for all ills in the world. Nunn, on the other hand, has posed herself as an independent pragmatist, cognizant of the problems this country faces and willing to work toward solutions. Now whether one would be better than the other is up to your ideological preference, and how you judge competence, but certainly Nunn has wiped the floor with the seemingly hollow man of Perdue. A stronger Libertarian Party candidate would likely play spoiler, perhaps on both sides, but Sawfford is fairly ineffectual, as she focuses more on the novelty of having a third choice than convincingly attracting support.

Winner: Nunn

Results: 48.6D-48.4R-2L

Effect: D Pickup

Hawaii: Brian Schatz (D) v. Campbell Cavasso (R) v. Michal Kokoski (L)

Without knowing the full history of the GOP side of this race, I am baffled how the party arrived at Cavasso as the candidate. Former governor Lingle could have pushed Schatz hard, but this election is a pure push.

Winner: Schatz

Results: 69D-29-2L

Effect: D Hold

Idaho: John Risch (R) v. Nels Mitchell (D)

Debate

One of the most right-wing creeps will return to the Senate. In the debate, Risch did everything he could to steer away from any substantial issue to instead paint Mitchell as an Obama surrogate from California in an effort to legitimize his insurgent candidacy. Such a creep… I definitely think Idaho could produce better people than Risch. Even Crapo is better.

Winner: Risch

Results: 67D-33R

Effect: R Hold

Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) v. Jim Oberweis (R) v. Sharon Hensen (L)

Debates here and here

Oberweis is a mega lightweight. His words carry no weight, he seems to lack any conviction on the issues. Durbin in a landslide. The question is, how far Obie runs behind Bruce Rauner–I figure somewhere around 12 points (which unfortunately means Rauner wins his race).

Winner: Durbin

Results: 57D-41R-2L

Effect: D Hold

Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) v. Joni Ernst v. Doug Butzler (L)

Debates here, here and here

Braley had this election well in tow before making fun of farming Senator Grassley. Since then, he has alienated a large proportion of older voters in the state, who may look at Ernst’s general election stance as who she is, when her primary positions deserve extreme scrutiny. That said, she may be more moderate than her primary stances, and more conservative than her general, making her a median member in the Senate GOP caucus. It seems like Ernst has this race in the bag, which should serve as a lesson to anyone who disparages the core economic venture in the state and seeks a raise to higher office. You would not think that needs to be said, but Braley clearly did not get the memo.

Winner: Ernst

Results: 50R-48D-2 all others

Effect: R Pickup

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) v. Greg Orman (I) v. Randall Batson (L)

Debates here, here, and here

Orman is one of the best challengers in this election cycle. He comes across as even-keeled and clear-headed. In contrast, Roberts comes across as desperate and on edge, with a little (though not as much as other faltering incumbents) transparent hostility. I have heard numerous stories over the years of Roberts being the funniest man in the Senate–sharp witted and consistently entertaining. But Orman has created a pretty unique Tea Party-progressive coalition, which although mercurial and at risk of shattering at any time, might carry long enough to get him one term in the Senate. Once the Democrat got kicked off the ballot, this race really became a heated race.

Winner: Orman

Results: 49.8I-47.2R-3L

Effect: I Pickup

Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) v. Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) v. David Patterson (L)

Debate

McConnell is a seriously slimy pol, both pejoratively in his shifty appearance and questionable motives, and positively in his savvy ability to manipulate the general electorate into supporting him, even if no one likes the guy, This election will likely confirm all of the above, with McConnell barely getting by with a simple plurality (instead of majority) of the vote. McConnell’s explanation of certain issues, like keeping the Kentucky exchange (it is “okay”), while repealing the whole of Obamacare, and Kentucky’s dwindling economy over the last 50 years being somehow a product of Obama’s regulatory policies, are a bit hard to swallow. Lundergan Grimes is a very strong candidate who would likely defeat McConnell in 4 out of 10 races, but in a single election, winning is tough. She is also one of the few Democrats who is more likely to win in a midterm year than a presidential year, with a negative pull of Democratic presidential candidates in Kentucky, as well as a very small liberal base (college students, African Americans, intellectuals, environmentalists) to turn out in Kentucky. The one thing about ALG, and with many red state Democrats, is basically defending why they are even Democrats. In this race, she has not done a good job standing up for her party id, which essentially means she is more liberal than what she expects would fly in Kentucky. Much of being a red state Democrat comes down to confusing enough voters into thinking you are something you are not, or simply benefiting from antipathy toward the GOP candidate. Both seem true here, but the latter may not move enough voters into Lundergan Grimes’ camp. I should say McConnell also has to deceive voters to receive votes, as most normal people would not support his particular use of tactics or dystopian policy views, even if they identify as conservative. Patterson is the clear spoiler here, but my calculation is he pulls about equally from disenchanted ultra-conservatives as potential Democratic independents who resent liberal elitism. The vote margin will be within 8000 votes, or about 0.6% of the total vote.

Winner: McConnell

Results: 48.5-47.9D-3.6L

Effect: R Hold

Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) v. Bill Cassidy (R) v. Rob Maness (I)

Debates here and here

Unlike Lundergan Grimes above, Landrieu is the genuine article conservative Democrat. She nearly killed Obamacare, she wanted to let BP skate with barely any penalty for destroying the Gulf, and she has often risen to the Senate floor to challenge progressive reforms offered by less senior members. On paper, Cassidy should beat her, based on the party id structural advantage, midterm year, and Cassidy’s history of pulling some African American votes to his side. However, Cassidy is campaigning in a very erratic manner, which makes him look very unstable (watch the debates above). In contrast, Maness has seemed lackadaisical and ill-informed, although he does come across as a fairly nice person. Landrieu is a very savvy campaigner and knows her state as well as any governor or senator in the country. The question becomes will she receive enough support in the general to avoid a runoff (which depends on Maness’ ability to pull votes from Cassidy)? The answer is no. Then she is disfavored from victory in a runoff. But I think she will fail to receive a majority in the general, and still win in the runoff, even with key Democratic base voters staying home. What explains this, I do not know–which may mean I am wrong–but she has done it before and can do it again.

Winner: Landrieu

Results: Plurality in general (46D-44R-10I); Majority in runoff 50.1D-49.9R

Effect: D Hold

Maine: Susan Collins (R) v. Shenna Bellows (D)

Debate

Put simply, the Democratic Party of Maine likes Susan Collins for some reason. More than respect, more than “she is a formidable candidate so we will not challenge her”–there is something going on there. Collins is a great legislator (though not as prolific as Olympia Snowe), and there is little reason to make a change in a state as independently liberal as Maine.

Winner: Collins

Results: 67R-32D-1 others

Effect: R Hold

Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) v. Brian Herr

Markey and John Kerry are very similar legislators, and as such, he will be returned to Congress with almost a Kerry-like electoral margin. I expect him to achieve fully Kerrydom in the next cycle in 2020 with a 70% share.

Winner: Markey

Results: 59D-38R-3other

Effect: D Hold

Michigan: Gary Peters (D) v. Terri Lynn Land (R) v. Jim Fullner (L)

The disappearing candidate strategy of Land (which is why there were no debates) will turn out not be a winning one. Peters wins. Pretty dumb strategy considering the best time to defeat an incumbent party is when they have to replace a long-time candidate. Peters will not be as vulnerable in 2020.

Winner: Peters

Results: 55D-42R-2L+1other

Effect: D Hold

Minnesota: Al Franken (D) v. Mike McFadden (R) v. Steve Carlson (IP)

Debates here and here

Franken has tailored a Minnesota first image by advancing local issues and only speaking to local press. He is a smart, dedicated leader who represents the interests of members of the public who may hold more conservative views. His debate performances have been quite underwhelming, but luckily his opponent McFadden is indefatigably moronic in his line of critiques and ideas. I could pick so many baffling quotes to display here, but I do not quite care enough to do it. Well, ok, I will do one. He supports revenue neutral tax code reform, “because we have 17 trillion dollars of debt.” Doesn’t that suggest the government needs more money? Or is the debt not the point, but and ideological commitment to not raising taxes is actually the motivation?

Winner: Franken

Results: 54D-44R-2IP

Effect: D Hold

Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) v. Travis Childers (D) v. Shawn O’Hara (Ref)

Childers being as conservative as he is will demobilize Democrats from seizing the momentum against Cochran. Cochran’s appeals to black voters in the primary may bolster his totals this go-round.

Winner: Cochran

Results: 61R-38D-1Ref

P.S. If write-ins were accepted (which I do not think they are), I would expect McDaniel supporters to aggregate into about a 17% vote share. 46R-36D-17McDeezee-1Ref

Effect: R Hold

Montana: Amanda Curtis (D) v. Steve Daines (R) v. Roger Roots (L)

Debate

Curtis acts like she is taking one for the team by falling on the sword this election, which I think is unsavory being that Daines is not a perfect candidate and could be called out on more things. But Daines does have a strong legislative temperament and actually possesses a semblance of competence that many freshman Republicans sorely lacked. Although I think Curtis is more intelligent on the issues that she conveys in a debate forum, her lack of eloquence reduces the ability of voters to project competence at the next level. That is key since Daines has used competence as his explicit number one quality.

Winner: Daines

Results: 61R-37D-2L

Effect: R pickup

Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) v. David Domina (D) v. Jim Jenkins (I) v. Todd Watson (I)

Debate

Sasse is not the worst conservative to have around, but is a fairly standard pseudo-moderate. But his opponent Domina is much less attractive candidate. He is a mild idiot–he can explain his positions on issues, but does not seem to understand the root of the concepts he is addressing. And example, when asked in a debate to name a conflict, if any, he would have opposed sending the military, he said Bosnia and Albania. Ok, not a bad answer. But in answering the question, he stated authoritatively that the primary role of the the US military is eliminate threats beyond our borders at the lowest possible level of appearance. Uh… no. Not at all.  Independent candidate Watson seized on this in his response, addressing the need to be more defensive, to which Domina stated the point is to never be on defense by always being on offense. Wow. That would Domina in the extreme right with his foreign policy and defense views, perhaps even of John McCain. Basically, Sasse skates by with simple answers, his youth, and party id to get to the Senate. Who knows, maybe he is capable of doing something good…

I was ready to end this post but then Domina said Israel saves the US billions of dollars by defending itself, because the alternative is to have a substantial military presence in the Middle East. Ok… so we do not have a military presence in the region, let alone an enormous one?

Winner: Sasse

Results: 58R-36D-4Watson-2Jenkins

Effect: R Hold

New Hampshire: Jeane Shaheen (D) v. Scott Brown (R)

Debates here and here

The Great Carpetbagger Scott Brown followed through on moving to New Hampshire–which according to him he was never not a part of–and challenged solid, if not amazing Jeane Shaheen. In theory, Brown should be able to beat Shaheen in a midterm election in the most conservative northeastern state. However, Brown will lose for several reasons. One, carpetbagging is not well-received in contemporary politics. Historically, it mattered very little, except for northern Unionist moving down the former Confederacy to run shit after the Civil War. Only in the last 50ish years have enough states solidified that you cannot hold office in one state then attempt to attain office in another. Put simply, people look on candidates from other states or districts as not them, and suspicious for even attempting to manipulate them or meddle in their affairs. Second, Shaheen is a fairly strong candidate. Yes, she has lost an election in the past, but she has a strong record within the state and even with current attacks on her, is a fairly moderate Democrat. Third, Brown’s campaign has been so excessively negative and snarky, I do not see who would switch a previous vote for Shaheen for a prospective vote for Brown. He has fear mongered on ISIS and Ebola well beyond the median fear mongering politician in the last few weeks (which is an incredible statement since overacting to this public health issue has become a characteristic of American political culture). I would not be shocked if Brown won, but I figure it is more likely New Hampshireans (New Hampshirites?) would consciously vote in a strategic manner to split their delegation. This state has a record of somehow making that happen.

Winner: Shaheen

Results: 53D-47R

Effect: D Hold

New Jersey: Corey Booker (D) v. Jeff Bell (R)

Debates here and here

The question is how transformative a politician Booker will become, as gauged by his electoral margin. Booker’s conservative, Main street, Third Way form of liberalism is actually a step back from Lautenberg’s overt progressivism. But Booker connects with people exceptionally well, which just like President Obama, allows him to build coalitions that exceed that of a standard moderate or progressive Democrat.  That said, the large coalition may not materialize in election returns, which is a bit confusing. Bell is a weak candidate. If Christie can pull Dems to his side, I am sure Booker can gain a reciprocal amount of GOP votes. (The dirty secret in NJ politics is that they are not that far apart on most issues.) Anyway, Booker wins, but probably not as big as he will in 2020 (assuming he does not allow a replacement to run while he seeks the presidency).

Winner: Booker

Results: 58D-41R-1other

Effect: D Hold

New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) v. Allen Weh

Debate

Unlike his weak sauce cousin up north, Tom Udall has risen to near moral leader status in the Senate. It may be because New Mexico is more liberal than Colorado, but the Tom version of Udall has staked our coherent and logical positions on topics across issues, which has allowed him to cultivate a clear image in the eyes of voters. I venture to wager if Tom was running in Colorado, even with his more left-wing record, he would beat Gardner at least 54-46. But anyway, about this race: … not much to say… Udall returns to the Senate and advances good government reforms.

Winner: Udall

Results: 57D-42R

Effect: D Hold

North Carolina: Kay Hagan (R) v. Thom Tillis v. Sean Haugh

Debates here and here

You would not think the architect of kicking voters of voting rolls and requiring state issued ID to vote would seek a raise, let alone proudly campaign on his legislative accomplishments during a campaign. But that is Thom Tillis. He has serious guts, I will give him that. But he will not win, primarily because of his record, Hagan’s solid get out the vote effort, and Libertarian Haugh’s place on the ballot (which will pull votes almost solely from Tillis).

Winner: Hagan

Results: 50D-46R-4L

Effect: D Hold

Oklahoma 1: James Inhofe (R) v. Matt Silverstein (D)

The prickly curmudgeon of the Senate asks voters for their support for the 5th time, with what pitch exactly? He is going to continue to aggressively deny reality and stop the illegal Muslim Manchurian programmed Obamar? This may prove to be Inhofe’s most successful vote share in Senate elections, as he traditionally receives either 55% (one time) or 57% (three times), but this time, he is polling in the low 60s with almost 10% undecided. His opponent is a classic lightweight who portrays himself as not a DC insider, but the Democratic version of Tom Coburn. Ok, so why should anyone vote for you?

Winner: Inhofe

Results: 63R-33D-4others

Effect: R Hold

Oklahoma 2: James Lankford (R) v. Connie Johnson (D) v. Mark Beard (I)

Debate

Among the freshman GOPers to arrive in the House in 2010, I always thought Lankford and Kevin Yoder of Kansas City would rise high within the party apparatus, as both are classic Republicans (not Tea Partiers, even when they have received Tea Party support) and they both have deep baritone voices, which gives their words an extra “I am an adult” feel to them. Both of them consistently serve as presiding speaker in the House, which is a sign of courting leadership support. I took no higher pleasure than watching Lankford beat wack-job TW Shannon in the GOP primary, even as Shannon paraded the anti-reality GOP stars around to increase his crypto-fascist cred. Shannon’s lose indicates Oklahoma may have a strong moderate Republican wing, which belies Inhofe’s repeated success over the years. Langford’s Christianity has seemingly played a role in not fear mongering on Ebola, suggesting the US cannot abdicate its role as a leading force in eradicating the disease by sealing the border and ignoring Africa (which interestingly, Johnson then took the screen everyone approach). I expect Langford to run ahead of Inhofe, as I imagine there are some Dems who will vote for Langford, who would not vote for Inhofe.

Winner: Lankford

Results: 65R-34D-1I

Effect: R Hold

Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) v. Monica Wehby v. Christina Lugo (G) v. Mike Montchalin (L) v. Karl King (I)

Debate

Merkley is one of the leading reformers of the Senate, and although he has seemingly allowed himself to drift leftward, he is still a pragmatic, innovative leader akin to his fellow Oregonian Ron Wyden. Wehby, on the other hand, is an ineloquent speaker, with a seeming level of disingenuous distortion that motivates her fleeting campaign. Her primary health care recommendations, aside from the numerous plagiarized ones, is to… lower costs? She strikes me as one of those doctors who writes her own scripts for muscle relaxers, which then proceeds to take before every interview she gives. Her lackluster campaign will lead to a libertarian Montchalin picking up some of her prospective voters. Lugo’s vote share is not as much a reflection of dissatisfaction with Merkley, but simply a baseline level of support the Green Party receives in the northwest.

Winner: Merkley

Results: 56D-38R-3L-2G-1I

Effect: D Hold

Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) v. Mark Zaccaria (R)

No contest. Reed and Whitehouse represent their state extremely well, and there is not disconnect between the average voter or body of voters and their two Senators. I take it from polling Zaccaria is a weak candidate, but even if he were stronger, Reed is well entrenched.

Winner: Reed

Results: 72D-28R

Effect: D Hold

South Carolina 1: Lindsey Graham (R) v. Brad Hutto (D) v. Victor Kocher (L) v. Tom Ravenel (I)

Debate

Weirdo disgraced ex-Treasurer/reality star Ravenel is running a Tea Party campaign to syphon votes from Graham, with no chance of victory whatsoever. Graham, now free of his scary primary, can fulfill the role he likes the most, which is to lecture the population on how bipartisanship and war-hawkery are the way to go. His opponent Hutto strikes me as quite capable and makes pretty convincing arguments that South Carolina should think about switching representation at this point. But that said, there are enough right-of-center moderates who would generally vote blue dog, but for Graham specifically will cross party lines. Graham wins, but with his lowest percentage in his career.

Winner: Graham

Results: 53R-37D-8I-2L

Effect: R Hold

South Carolina 2: Tim Scott (R) v. Joyce Dickerson (D) v. Jill Bossi (A)

Debate

Tom Scott is very popular in South Carolina–no Democrat in the whole state could be him in this particular election. Dickerson is a very weak candidate to begin with. One thing that is odd about Scott is he leans very heavily to his right side when he gives stump speeches, which is quite disorienting. Is it a tell that he is lying about something? Is there a medical explanation? Does he even realize he does this?

Scott lean lean4 tim scott lean2

Winner: Scott

Results: 66R-33D-1A

Effect: R Hold

South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) v. Rick Weiland (D) v. Larry Pressler (I) v. Gordon Howie (I)

Rounds has a solid economic development record (and by that I mean, right place right time), to send him straight to Congress. Weiland is a progressive in a state that has been steadily obliterating any left-wing sense. Pressler probably represents average/median voter the best. Howie is just to attack Rounds. Pressler could have beat Rounds if Weiland was not on the ballot.

Winner: Rounds

Results: 46.5R-35D-18Pressler-0.5Howie

Effect: R Pickup

Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) v. Gordon Ball (D) v. Danny Page (I)

Ball statement; Alexander statement

Alexander’s only threat was (and always will be) in the primary, as he is a moderate and responsible Republican, which makes him public enemy number one to many ultra-conservatives. Well, he got through the primary and faces a competent, though overall uninspiring Democrat in Ball. Then there is Page, who is campaigning to the right of Alexander. No matter, in a general Alexander is quite formidable, and he will skate to victory.

Winner: Alexander

Results: 60R-38R-2I

Effect: R Hold

Texas: John Cornyn (R) v. David Alameel (D) v. Rebecca Paddock (L) v. Emily Marie Sanchez (G)

Debate

After surviving the grass-roots onslaught of the great populist icon Steven Stockman (hopefully my sarcasm was obvious), Cornyn will meet business Dem Alameel, which says about all you need to know about his ability to mobilize the D base. Hispanic mobilization is probably more important than black mobilization at this point, but they are both necessary for a Democrat to win statewide. Although I appreciate Alameel’s heated rhetoric blaming Cornyn for the free trade, outsourcing, and stagnant wages that characterize the US economy, I do not see how that would attract enough outright conservatives to beat the tone deaf ideologue of Cornyn. After all, there are many more of Cornyn’s lot in the general electorate than Alameel’s. If this were a presidential year, Alameel would probably crack 40 percent.

Winner: Cornyn

Results: 58R-36D-4L-2G

Effect: R Hold

Virginia: Mark Warner (D) v. Ed Gillespie (R) v. Robert Sarvis (L)

Debates here, here and here

Ed Gillespie just rubs people the wrong way. He seems smarmy and unrelatable. His fear-mongering and laying all the nation’s ills at the heels of the Democrats and Mark Warner just do not fly. Warner is a corporate technocrat who rarely does anything too poorly or too well. He is calculating and plays to his strengths. He and Time Kaine are the template for the type of Democrat that can win statewide in Virginia, and I doubt that will change (ever). He has a seat for life, unless he faces a primary from the left.

Winner: Warner

Results: 53D-44R-3L

Effect: D Hold

West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) v. Natalie Tennant (D)

Debate

It is sad to see how far Moore Capito has deviated from being a cerebral moderate pragmatist, now portraying herself exactly like Tea Partiers: Obama is to blame for everything, Harry Reid is an obstructionist, and the GOP does no wrong. From the debate above, it seemed quite obvious the Tennant may be a lefty, but her critiques of SMC were very strong and she positioned herself well as the true change the paradigm candidate. But none of that will matter as the state continues to shift Republican, and Moore Capito is the most electable member of that party in the whole state. She will likely maintain the seat for over 12 years.

Winner: Moore Capito

Results: 56R-43D-1others

Effect: R Pickup

Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) v. Charlie Hardy (D) v. Curt Gottshall (I) v. Joseph Porambo (L)

Enzi is going nowhere in the most conservative state in the union. Among most Republicans, he is actually one of the more integrity filled, honest brokers (which has got him in hot water with right-wing activists before). As is often the case, this seat is his until a formidable enough Republican defeats him in a primary.

Winner: Enzi

Results: 70R-28D-2others

Effect: R Hold

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Posted on November 1, 2014, in 2014 Election, Election Predictions, Elections and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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