South Carolina Primary Results: Just As Predicted

Whoohooh! Newt Gingrich for Presidente. The thing is, I heard Newt Gingrich was a Kenyan Mau Mau Socialist. Crazy right!? Here is my evidence: He is in a picture with Barack Hussein Obama; Newt did an infomercial with Nancy Pelosi; and worst of all, he does not think you should deport all illegal immigrants! SOCIALIST!!!

Anyway, enough of me trying to speak like an accusatory Republican. Let’s do some analysis!

Saturday’s Results (with my prediction in parenthesis):

1. Newt “I Am The Walrus” Gingrich… 243,153… 40.4% (40%)

2. Mitt “Am I Still Talking” Romney… 167,279… 27.8% (30%)

3. Rick “Santorum” Santorum…102,055 …17% (15%)

4. Ron “Isolationism To The Rescue” Paul… 77,993… 13% (12%)

5. Rick “I Still Get Votes After Dropping Out” Perry…2,494 … 0.4% (2%)

And how about a map:

Here are the Sixth Party System’s takeaways:

  • I thought Santorum would outpace Gingrich throughout the primary season after Iowa, not because Santorum is anything special, but just because Newt has so much baggage that I thought would offend the Tea Party and Evangelical sides of the party. Turns out, that is not the case, and Gingrich is a perfectly suitable Tea Party leader: hypocritical, lacking in integrity, a demagogue, and just a generally deplorable person.
  • This map is incredible. Romney did well in the two counties that have South Carolina equivalents to metropolises, and more generally, the richest parts of the state (where all the old money lives). Newt did well everywhere else, showing that he represents the views of the average right-wing Caucasian in South Carolina. I thought he would do well based on his experience in a neighboring state, as well as his particular style of vitriol, which seems to fit the South Carolina tradition.
  • Apparently, the base does not believe Rick Santorum has the chops to advocate for their beliefs and/or beat Obama. Poor little guy, he’s a trooper though…
  • To recap, Romney’s support is from the urban upper crusties that have historically run the Republican party. Gingrich’s supporters are from the most angry electorate, the far-right and Tea Party. Santorum’s strongest supports derives from the evangelical vote, but he is unsuccessful at attracting them as a whole bloc. Finally, Paul’s support is mostly from young independents and Republicans of the libertarian persuasion. This fracture can be continued indefinitely as long as these four candidates are in the race, but once Santorum drops out, expect his share of the votes to go with Gingrich (or vice versa). Paul will not drop out until the end, but if he did, I expect his supporters to split since their is no logical replacement candidate. Paul has his own base, as does Romney, while Gingrich and Santorum fight for the lowest common denominator in the Republican party: the Tea Party and Evangelical voters.
  • Had Rick Perry campaigned more strenuously and not dropped out, he may have received up to 7% of the vote, probably stealing votes from Gingrich. Perry’s departure allowed Gingrich to win by 12%, where he may have only won by 5% or 6% if Perry “stayed the course” like a good Texan.
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Posted on January 22, 2012, in 2012 Election, Elections. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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