New Hampshire Primary Results Analysis

First, the results:

1. Mitt Romney… 97,532 (39.3%)

2. Ron Paul… 56.848 (22.9%)

3. John Huntsman… 41,945 (16.9%)

4. Newt Gingrich… 23,411 (9.4%)

5. Rick Santorum… 23,362 (9.4%)

6. Rick Perry… 1,766 (0.7%)

7. Buddy Roemer… 945 (0.4%)

Second, the maps:

Winner by county (Blue is Romney, Green is Paul)

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Winner by town (Purple is Huntsman, Dark Grey is “tied”, Light Grey is “no results”)

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Bubble by size of winner’s lead (the biggest being Rockingham County’s 26.4% margin for Romney)

Third, FiveThirtyEight’s Exit Polls:

exit poll stuff…

Four, Sixth Party System’s final analysis:

Who cares? After my Iowa writeup I realized none of this matters. I could tell you, Paul did well in the most rural and liberal areas of the state, that Huntsman’s support was primarily from independents, or that Romney essentially lives in New Hampshire so that he can win their electorate, but none of that matters. Huntsman will now drop out, meaning Romney is the only non-insane Republican left in the field. Essentially, this seals his candidacy, as too many caretaker type voters will simply be too afraid of a Paul or Gingrich presidency, and cannot take Santorum or Perry seriously. From here, the race will be defined by Paul conceding non-split delegate states, while finishing second in almost every state that does split their delegates. Santorum will rise above Newt from here on out, and Perry will never recover from his own cognitive shortcomings. Santorum will benefit from extremely conservative electorates, but Romney has all the endorsements that matter, so he will continue to win.

This is all quite disgusting.

What is the Republican Party at this point other than an economically anarcho-capitalistic and socially authoritarian fiefdom? Seems like this dynamic will not change until Republican voters realize how little they benefit from the votes they cast.

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Posted on January 12, 2012, in 2012 Election, Elections, Party System. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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