2012 Presidential Election Matchup: Obama versus Palin

President Obama's dream would be to face 1/2 term Governor Sarah Palin. Obama would benefit from an exodus of disenfranchised conservative voters away from Palin, many of whom do not think she is qualified for higher office

Though I would bet all the money I have in the bank (which is $0 since I spent it all in anticipation of the May 21 rapture) that Palin will not run, I thought it would be fun to create hypothetical electoral college results. This is Obama’s high water mark, which he is unlikely to reach facing any serious candidate. This race would most likely breed a third party candidacy by another conservative or a libertarian minded individual (Paul, Bloomberg, etc.). I decided creating a map including a third party candidate would unleash to many confounding variables, so I stuck to the one-on-one matchup. I will do a few more of these maps for other prospective races.

Notes on the map: She would only win Alaska is heavily anti-Obama. That follows from Alaska’s antagonism towards the federal government and the connection demagogues have made between big government and Obama, despite his tax reductions. What is “big government” anyway? Check out Michigan’s Public Act:

http://www.legislature.mi.gov/documents/2011-2012/publicact/pdf/2011-PA-0004.pdf

now that is big government. Also, Texas would be in play if Palin ran because she is very good at rallying antithesis support from minorities, which might compel the “sleeping giant” Hispanic vote to finally turn Texas blue. Georgia would be the only bible belt state to turn blue, but it was already fairly close in 2008.

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Posted on May 22, 2011, in 2012 Election, Election Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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